The poll that has proved the most accurate in the last three presidential election cycles Wednesday indicated Republican presidential contender Donald Trump is leading Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by a point going into the final presidential debate.
Though most polls indicate Clinton is leading Trump, the poll by Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence indicated the real estate mogul leading the former secretary of state 41 percent to 40 percent.
Political consultant Frank Luntz noted the Investor’s Business Daily poll of 2012 proved to be the most accurate of that election cycle. It also had the smallest deviation from certified results in 2004 and 2008.
This was the most accurate poll of the 2012 election (nyti.ms/1cusF32) and currently shows Trump winning by +1 nationwide. twitter.com/PpollingNumber…
The poll followed a week of negative press and attacks from Democrats and celebrities against Trump following the revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape in which he bragged about forcing himself on women and allegations of assault by women who said Trump had groped or kissed them.
The poll of 872 likely voters surveyed from last Thursday through Tuesday also indicated support for Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 8 percent and is at 6 percent for green Party candidate Jill Stein.
"From the results, it looks as if Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are drawing more support away from Clinton than Trump," said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the poll.
The poll indicated Trump’s backers are more committed to him than Clinton’s are to her, 67 percent vs. 58 percent. However, only 20 percent of those queried said they think Trump will win the election.
Forty-seven percent of women said they support Clinton compared to 37 percent for Trump. The reverse is true among men: 47 percent for Trump and 32 percent for Clinton.
Parents (46 percent), married women (44 percent) and lower-class households (53 percent) support Trump while 63 percent who express no religious affiliation support Clinton.
Among the better educated, Clinton leads 45 percent to 36 percent; Trump leads among those with a high school education, 58 percent to 27 percent.
The poll, which had an error rate of 3.6 percent and a 95 percent confidence level, will be updated daily beginning Thursday through the election.
RealClear Politics’ average of the last week’s worth of major polls has Clinton ahead by 6.5 percentage points, the widest margin found by Monmouth University at 12 points. The Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California daily tracking poll had Trump leading by 0.2 point Wednesday although the eight-day average has the candidates tied.
ibtimes
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